2012-11-01
2012-11-30
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x new hampshire

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MSNBC 11
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CSPAN 10
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English 91

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that had large hispanic populations. like nevada, like colorado, like florida. so i think they should be very worried when it comes to these battleground states, and even in ohio, where you have 166,000 registered latino voters going out to the polls, and an election this tight, they could absolutely be the deciding factor. i think it's going to be the october surprise of this election. >> i thought we already had one of those. >> early november. >> let me ask you, because we were asking our viewers before the break, if you could run the campaign in the last three days, what would you do if you have the reins of the campaign. if you were in charge of the romney campaign, anna, what would you do at this point? >> i think exactly what they are doing. they're having big rallies. showing a great deal of republican unity. they're showing a great deal of momentum. they've got over a hundred of the top republican surrogates out there fanning around the country, going to the swing states. so you've got to get your base out at this point. pretty mu there are very few undecided that are left. i

contest. barack obama was leading before the election and then prevailed 52-46%. nevada also expected to be in the president's column, and indeed it turned out to be. let's go to new hampshire. this is a bit of a home state for mitt romney because he has a vacation home there. he spent a lot of time vacationing during the primaries. he won the primary, but not the general election in new hampshire. to north carolina a close race and we called it for mitt romney, a three-point win. the state of ohio, this was really the make or break for the mitt romney campaign. in the end he lost it by two percentage points. a lot of it had to do with his position on the auto bailout. virginia an important state for mitt romney to win. he had to run the table of florida, north carolina, virginia and ohio and he lost virginia. let's move to wisconsin. his running mate paul ryan born and raised in wisconsin. it didn't help him there. barack obama wins with wise -- wins wisconsin. the state of michigan mitt romney was born in michigan and raised there. his father was the governor for two terms. barack o

in wisconsin and colorado and nevada. he's certainly going to recognize the victims of this storm at the top of his remarks and note that this was a time for democrats and republicans to come together and take care of those victims of the storm. thing the state of ohio, we've seen a little bit different tone from mitt romney this week. he's gotten himself into a battle with gm and chrysler. he said that chrysler is going to shut down jeep production in the state of ohio and scared a bunch of workers in the region. the auto companies have made clear that's absolutely not true. i think we've seen a little bit of desperation in his closing message. >> and we have seen a slight swing for the president in our new swing state polls. i'm sure you saw what karl rove wrote today. in the last days of the presidential race, he says they favor mitt romney. the democrats are making a mistake because they're counting on inconsistent voters who may well not turn out. could turn out be the difference in this election? does karl rove have a point? >> well, i think turnout will make the difference in this ele

of the hour we'll take you to nevada and wisconsin. first, back to sole dad. >>> at the end of the day, it's all going to be about the math. in order to win, you have to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes. let's get to christine romans who is crunching the numbers. >> the rose to 270. what if it were a draw at 269? it's possible. there are four 269 scenarios. statistically, there are 120 different scenarios. four with the swing states. this is hypothetical, remember. the map is assuming that states that are actually leaning go in the direction that they're leaning right now. wisconsin, ohio, and new hampshire, new hampshire with the four electoral votes, if they go for obama and romney wins nevada, colorado, iowa, virginia, and the 29 over there in florida, then you're at a tie. worst nightmare for both parties. 269 each. now a note for iowa here, this is assuming it goes red, it goes for romney with the six electoral votes. recent polls there showing a slight lead, actually, for obama. if wisconsin and ohio vote democrat, you know, technically you could think -- you could conclud

, turnout is crucial. >> turnout has been crucial for three weeks. in other words, in colorado, nevada, north carolina, it may have been crucial before today, but on election day, as nancy mentioned in her piece, republicans have to turn their base out. >> stay with us, we'll be speaking with both campaigns this morning. we begin with david axelrod. david, good morning. >> good morning, charlie. happy election day. >> well, thank you. happy election day to you and everybody else in the great state of illinois. so tell me what it is that's most crucial today for you to win. >> well, you've been using the word, which is turnout. we've been expecting a close election for a year and a half. we've built a tremendous organization. we've got 200,000 or more election shifts volunteers set up. we've got 5,000 stations in neighborhoods across the battleground states. and now it's time to turn out that vote. and that's what this election is going to be about. we are happy about those early vote numbers. those early vote numbers are very significant. we go in with a great advantage. >> one thing t

nevada, those four states, romney could win with pennsylvania and then the other swing states. >> virginia -- >> and florida. it's not his best -- it's not where he would want to be at this point in the campaign. but looking at where the polls have been in ohio all year, i think they think it's worth a shot. >> you think it makes a difference on the last day, the day people are voting for a candidate to show up in pennsylvania and ohio? >> here's the thing about that. in those other states, early voting is well under way and most of each sides' votes have already been banked. pennsylvania doesn't have a big early voting program. so everyone that's going to vote in pennsylvania is going to vote on tuesday. so he might think, maybe this is my chance, i have a captive audience there because obama hasn't been there much. and i've got more votes that are available to me in pennsylvania. >> we're all spending so much time thinking about ohio. but is there another state you're looking at closely right now? >> the thing i'm looking at is some of these states where hispanics are a risi

's how my friend from nevada repeatedly described it when republicans considered doing something similar several years ago but wisely chose not to. at the end of the following year my friend has -- was poised to become senate majority leader. this was back in 2006. with the experience of having served in the minority in his mind, the majority leader, the soon-to-be majority leader, the senator from nevada, made a commitment to practice the golden rule, as he put it, by running the senate with respect for the rules and for the minority rights the rules protect. unfortunately, he appears to have repudiated that clear commitment. unfortunately, he no longer recognizes, as senator byrd did, by the way, that the senate was not established to be efficient but to make sure minorities are protected. then my friend recognized that is what the senate is all about. that's what he said back then. now he says the primary consideration is -- quote -- "efficiency." he seeks to minimize concerns about this majoritarian power grab by characterizing the effect as tiny, a minor change, as changing the rule

think we're going to win iowa, wisconsin, we're going to win nevada, we're going to win new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. >> don't just vote. bring your mom. bring your dad. bring your cousin. knock on the door of your neighbor. because let me tell you something, the middle class depends on it. it literally depends on it. >> the vice president took on mitt romney's latest lie about jeep sending jobs to china. >> scare the hell -- scare the heck out of these people and it's flat false. absolutely flat fall. it's the most cynical play i've seen and, you know, there is an editorial in the denver post saying this goes to character. it's not just a lie, but it goes to character. >> while most of the attention is on ohio, a record breaking crowd gathered in concord, new hampshire. president obama was joined by one of the best retail politicians in the business. former president bill clinton. >> 20 years and nine months ago, new hampshire began the chance for me to become president. i have worked very hard in this campaign

, in virginia, even in ohio what they saw as a lead or slight lead now has slipped. novemb nevada off the table. it's changed this race. charlie and norah? >> political director john dickerson and national journal white house correspondent major garrett have been with us throughout this campaign. welcome. >> good to be with you. >> an exciting race. >> indeed, it is. >> let me start with john. what's the pathway, possible pathway for governor romney? >> well, let's start context. if we look at the map and we assign those states that are red states and blue states to the two candidates, president obama starts with 237. romney starts with 191. the president's already got a head start. and that means that if you look at all the possible scenarios, president obama has about 431 ways he can get to 270. mitt romney had just 76. let's look at mitt romney. the best possible scenario for him is that he wins florida. we'll give florida to him. then we'll give him the other big one, ohio. 18 electoral votes. then 15 in north carolina. let's give him 13 in virginia. still not there yet. 266. this gives you

reform. obama landed in nevada now. he has three stops in wisconsin. six in ohio. they thought they'd have the state locked up but they don't. six stops in ohio tells us while he has a lead, they are nervous about that. he will hit it six times. he is rolling out big celebrities. eva longoria in nevada. sheila e. she was banging on the drums. we're told on monday he will be in battleground states with jay-z and bruce springstein. you talked about david axelrod saying that are not going to lose michigan and not losing minnesota, not losing pennsylvania. if they do, he will shave off his mustache. new information on the shaving front. today, jay carney showed up to work on air force one without shaving says he is not going to shave between now and election day. superstition. he thinks it will help the president win re-election. we know jay carney will shave after election day. will david axelrod shave after election day? it may help us learn whether or not mr. romney will win or the president will win. >> dana: thank you. good thing when i was press secretary i didn't have such a rule

that confident tonight? >> at the end of the day it all comes down to turnout. in a state like nevada, more than 70% will vote by election day we have a 70,000 vote lead there. we have more than 100,000 vote advantage in the bank at this time. we signed up more than 6,600 volunteer shifts for the get out the vote program. it all comes down to turnout in the final hours. >> well, you have the turnout, it looks like. if these early voting hours have been cut, how much concern is that to you? >> well, we have a voter protection team on the ground and right here in chicago that took quick action in florida yesterday. miami-dade and palm beach announced early voting tomorrow. so we're going to make sure that everybody's vote counts. if you're in line, stay in line. we're going to make sure it happens through the final hours. >> the romney campaign says it has numbers showing that they're going to win ohio. is that a bluff? >> well, i think we heard a lot of bluffing from the romney campaign for days that says they have an intensity advantage on their side. look no further than the fact that mitt romn

they went to nevada, colorado, iowa, wisconsin, ohio, virginia and new hampshire and these are the ones who have been the surrogates with mrs. obama, no, my husband is not a cold fish. we have dinner every night with the kids. you should know him. you should see that smile. i love him. you should love him. mrs. romney who is very close to her husband in the strategy, she plays a bigger role than just being the wife of, she is the one who said, he is not a stiff man. look at us. and, by the way, you talked about the grandchildren. there are 18 grandchildren. 13 of them are boys. >> all right. let us put that to the decision desk and see what that means. okay, barbara, stand by, team. we know you have so much more you're eager to say and we'll take a break at election night headquarters 2012 reporting on one of the great nights in democracy, one of the great privileges it is to vote as the polls still are open and a lot of this country projections come in and we have more, of course, to report on what social media is saying when we come back. >> announcer: multitouchscenes courtesy of microso

in nevada and colorado. nevada is a pathway to 270 without ohio. i think the post-mortem on this is that -- if the republicans don't win, a look a thow they dealt with the latino vote and the language they used and the perception that is created. the latino vote is one of the pillars of the obama strategy. and a big turnout like the president said -- this is a reason why he wins. he was playing the analyst and acts like he doesn't do it publically. >> the best visual we've seen about the changing face of american politics -- the percentage of the vote white voters make up. it is down 3-4 points each election adn this will continue a long time. it was a reality they could blow off but they can't win without improving those numbers. >> you saw rubio try to do that -- >> and -- it was such a moment. really. and if we see, if republicans are serious about that, they will get serious about immigration reform. >> i will make a prediction if romney doesn't win. this is the last time we see a major party ticket with two white men on it. it will be almost automatic you have

close. and labor aint dead. laver played a big role in helping obama and nevada and wisconsin as well as an ohio. the popularity of the auto bailout is hard to overstate. that a little bit from politico. now we want to hear from you. we will begin with a call from woodbridge, virginia on our line for democrats. good morning. go ahead. caller: good morning. i am calling it, as my first time calling c-span. a have been listening for several years. and i feel like i have to make a call today. my comment would be, i voted for obama, and a first-time voter. i just became a citizen of this year. the democratic party, i have been here for two years, and this democratic party stands for us all, it helps the poor people of. like obama said, trying to help people come up to the middle class. the republican party stands for the rich. it claims to be a christian party. these people call themselves christians. but the abuse, the idea as, is not designed to help the poor. it is for the rich. so people like myself, i would never aligned with this party. host: tell us about your experience boating an

on the campaign trail. he will visit wisconsin, nevada and colorado today. governor mitt romney is in virginia, after campaign iing i florida on wednesday. jan crawford filed this report this morning as the romney campaign headed north. >> to say that the hurricane threw a wrench in the presidential election is really an under dstatement. think about it. less than a week to go, the race this tight. both sides suspending campaigning and romney yesterday back on the campaign trail but muting his attacks on the president. and the president yesterday getting to do something romney could not. act as comforter in chief. >> we're going to help you get it all together. i promise, you're going to be okay. >> reporter: he met with victims and officials, reassuring that the government will be there to help. >> we're going to get this whole thing -- we're going to get this whole thing set up. >> reporter: at his side republican governor chris christie, a romney supporter. to show he was moving beyond partisan politics. >> he has been aggressive in making sure that the state got out in front of this incred

on the campaign trail. he'll visit wisconsin, nevada and colorado today and governor mitt romney heads to virginia after campaigning in florida on wednesday. jan crawford is covering the romney campaign in jacksonville. jan, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, norah, good morning, charlie. to say that the hurricane threw a wrench in the presidential campaign is an understatement. both sides suspending campaigning. mitt romney muting his attacks on the president. the president yesterday getting to do something romney could not. act as comforter in chief. >> i'm going to help you get it all together. i promise. i promise. >> reporter: as the president tour storm-ravaged areas of new jersey he met with victims and officials, reassuring them the government would be there to help. >> everybody safe? that's the most important thing then we'll get this whole thing set up. >> reporter: apartment his side was new jersey republican governor chris christie, a mitt romney supporter. recognizing christie for his leadership the president sought to show he was moving beyond partisan politics. >> he's been a

, particularly in nevada, another key state that we're watching here. there was just a kwocouple of d ago that the romney campaign ran this ad attempting to link the president to hugo chavez and fidel castro that is probably not a way to get latino voters to i guess appreciate your economic plan since he says he's got this five-point plan. >> well, one of the things that is interesting here, that is an ad that actually might work in florida. the hispanic community in florida is made up of cubans and venezuelans. if you look at the polls that. >> do care about this administration's policy in terms of some of these countries and in terms of south american countries. so that's a ploy i think will work in florida. not so much in nevada where there are more mexicans. you're right. this idea of focusing on foreign policy rather than on economic policy, not a good play. you saw mitt romney try to do that early on. he was in texas, for instance, early on in this race, and talking about those issues. but, again, in texas, that's a state he is going to win. have i been quite surprised that you have

, and that's the campaign we built was one to win a close race. but if you look at nevada, iowa, ohio, florida, virginia, new hampshire, colorado, all of these states we think the president is in a good position to win. and we think governor romney is playing defense. he is spending his last day in florida and virginia on monday. states that they were telling you in the media a few weeks ago they thought were done deals. they are far from done deals. i'd rather be the president today than romney in terms of those two states. >> i talked about the american firewall for president obama. you seem to be up in ohio at least a couple of points based on polling i've seen. a new poll from "the des moines register" has you up five in iowa. do you believe ohio and iowa are done deals in the president's column? >> david, not until the polls close. so we feel good about our position in both those states. we think we have done terrific in terms of the early vote. it's important to understand, for governor romney to win ohio, iowa, north carolina, he'll have to carry election day by a huge margin,

, nevada. >> new hampshire got me the republican nomination, and new hampshire is going to get me the white house. thanks, you guys. >> schieffer: if there's anything both sides can agree on, this is close and could come down to one state, but which one, florida, virginia, or-- >> i think you may have noticed everyone paying's a lot of attention to ohio. >> schieffer: and them there's the wild card. what will the impact that the super storm that destroyed parts of new jersey and plunkedly the lower half the manhattan into darkness have the race? we've got the latest on hurricane sandy damage,en and this we'll turn to the best of the best political remembers, analysts and race watchers to give us their take on the presidential race. we'll start with peggy noonan of the "wall street journal." dee dee myers of "vanity fair." richard lowry of the "national review." harvard university's david gergen. and our own john dickerson. then we'll talk to stu rothenberg of the stu rothenbe rothenberg political reports. allen stanford of the university of virginia center for politics, democratic pollster

on me. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue? >> i don't know. >> we'll put it there for now. that gets us through the presidential toss-ups. let's go to the red states if you will. these are a ton of great states. >> flake wins. >> montana, that's scary. everybody, both sides say it's really too close. >> the libtarian candidate is going to make the winning number. >> it could. >> i guess he gets a couple. this guy john tester up a point or two and the question is does that save him? let's do edge tester. >> all right. next one? north dakota right next door. >> berg wins. it's very very close. >> the same way you feel about montana. >> yeah. >> not quite as close. >> yeah. >> let's stick in the red states. nebra

that iowa and nevada are more or less won. early vote and demographic advantages they built and ground game advantages. you put those three together that's done they also believe they have a very good chance in new hampshire. a senior obama adviser said new hampshire is like chinatown for jake guinness. we feel about it but it leaves us a bit squeamish. >> let's talk about ohio because that has been the focus of so much of our attention ohio. it looks like that state is trending towards president obama. is that why we saw governor romney make a play for wisconsin, for pennsylvania, even men they were in over the weekend campaigning trying to enlarge the electoral map for romney? >> even if romney wins florida as we went through there, if he done win ohio he's got pind the votes somewhere else. if he loses ohio the paths they shrink down the single digits for governor romney. to increase his chances to get to 270 he has to find another state and they are looking for other states. pennsylvania, 96% of the vote happens on election day. not like when these early voting states. so, it's a razzle

listed all the important states, florida, colorado, nevada. but here in ohio, this is the biggest, the most important of the battleground states. the president was here yesterday, made three stops making two stops here. we'll return here again. and the message that the president keeps hammering away on here is how he pushed for the auto bailout. why is that so important? because so many jobs in ohio are tied to the auto industry. they believe this is a message that resonates with voters here. so we expect for the president to continue pushing that theme as he makes his remarks here in ohio again this morning. we're told there is an overthrow crowd and the president is making some remarks to them. they will be coming out here to speak later on. >> all right. dan, thanks so much. of course, we'll take that event as soon as the president does finish up with the overflow crowd and then making his way into that arena in mentor, ohio. >>> the president's opponent mitt romney is having a very busy final weekend of his own campaigning before the election. he is in new hampshire, iowa and

nevada, arizona, montana, north dakota, wisconsin and connecticut. it could be a nail biter on tuesday night. athena jones, cnn, washington. >>> and in our next hour, the race for the white house appears to be really tight. what happens if the vote is all tieded up. we'll show you what could happen if there's an electoral college tie. from 17 billion chips worldwide to a world of super-connected intelligence. the potential of freescale unlocked. nyse euronext. unlocking the world's potential. to investing with knowledge. the potential of td ameritrade unlocked. nyse euronext. unlocking the world's potential. customer erin swenson bought so, i'm happy. today. sales go up... i'm happy. it went out today... i'm happy. what if she's not home? (together) she won't be happy. use ups! she can get a text alert, reroute... even reschedule her package. it's ups my choice. are you happy? i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. happy. happy. happy. happy. (together) happy. i love logistics. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from na

, wisconsin, nevada, new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. don't just vote. bring your mom, your dad, cousin, knock on the door of your neighbor. let me tell you something, the middle class depends on it. >> joining me from the battleground state of ohio is our own national treasure, chris matthews. it's always great to see you. congratulations on the interviews. how much of that confidence is genuine and how much is spin in the homestretch? >> he felt confident when i talked to him off camera. of course, north carolina, new hampshire and colorado are up in the air. he said virginia and florida would be tough, as well. did you notice the discordance on the right wing of getting along with the other side? on the one hand, the romney is saying we should get along with the other side saying he could work with a republican congress. of course he can, he's a republican. then you have rupert murdoch trashing the governor of new jersey for the same thing, working with the other side. the times of london endorsed obama, so what

, nevada, new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. it also could be close. but the firewall here of ohio, wisconsin, iowa -- >> talk to your stake holders. tell them what they should do on tuesday. >> if you can vote early, vote earlier. but don't just vote, bring your mom, your dad, bring your cousin, knock on the door of your neighbor. the middle depends on it. >> vice president joe biden, thank you for your time. good luck. >>> north carolina and colorado look pretty tough. coming up, where does the race stand? we have the results of the latest and last poll before the election. that's next. and we have our top people here tonight. chuck todd, howard fineman, eugene robinson and others. the big question is about big bill. if president obama does win re-election tuesday night, the person he can thank the most perhaps probably is the guy he was campaigning with in new hampshire, bill clinton, the big dog could be the one who pulls him over the finish line. >>> and guess who on the romney team is bad mouthing chris chris

's a tossup, but tough to overcome the top of the ticket impact. >> stay out west. nevada, third congressional district. >> nevada, joe heck, congressman, the type of district that the democrats should be challenges to win the majority. it's a suburban las vegas clark county district, places where democrats should be doing well. they are having a tough time. a former leader in the state house, but what's interesting, he has an influential position in the state legislature, the ads talk about the records as a firefighter, not mentioning he's a politician because that label is not one you want to have. right now, heck has the advantage, but if democrats are having a better night than we expect, they would need to do belter in this type of district. >> california is a solid blue state for the president, but a couple interesting house races in that state. >> well, california, normal, we can about ignore the state. it's the largest state, there's really only been one or two seats that have a chance of one party taking over the other, but with the citizen legislative redistricting, the map is turned

in the early vote in several of them, including ohio, iowa, nevada, we've got a lead in colorado. we feel very good about where we are. >> david axelrod joining us this morning. thanks for being with us. we appreciate your time. >> thank you. >> you want to be sure to watch the rest of our cnn election team tonight when the first polls close at 6:00 p.m. eastern. you can follow the exact countdown in the lower left-hand side of your screen and as the clock ticks for those closing. there are other stories making news this morning. zoraida's got that for you. >> good morning. another key race to watch today former presidential candidate michele bachmann in the toughest battle of her political life. minnesota congresswoman is in a tight race with democratic challenger jim graves. in their final debate, bachmann defended her claims that muslim brotherhood operatives have infiltrated the federal government. >>> and a sign today that the northeast is slowly recovering from superstorm sandy. the national september 11th memorial at the world trade center site in new york city reopened today. it was cl

, nevada, wisconsin, new hampshire, and either north carolina or virginia. that's extremely doable. >> mike, what poll jumps out at you? >> "columbus dispatch," highly accurate, two points, margin of error, statistical poll, a mail-in poll, a better sample with a long tail. >> i've been hearing people saying they are tired. want this to be over. they are tired of the commercials. tired of the phone calls. tired of the coverage in some cases. will voter fatigue play into this, and if it does, who does it help and who does it hurt? >> i think romney has the intensity advantage, but my guess is a lot of people will grumble and vote. hell, i'm in the business and i'm tired but i'm going to vote. >> hillary? >> i was in florida a couple weeks ago and just the assault on simple tv watching is tremendous, but, you know, i actually think that something like hurricane sandy brings home to people in a very tragic but important way how important government is, and i think that matters and people will vote. >> real quickly, just both your answers to this. what are the chances wednesday morning american

. this is not colorado or nevada or mexico. nonetheless, hispanics in virginia, as in many of the other states, to be very heavily democratic. and so, to the extent they turn out, even if they are only 4% of the statewide votes in any given year, they can assist democrats. let me mention asian americans, because they have become increasingly important in virginia, even though they are a small percentage of the population and the registered population. in northern virginia in particular, they have become exceptionally active. they give a lot of money to candidates. they are predominantly democratic, although slices of the asian-american population, such as vietnamese americans, will support republicans. it goes to show that in a diverse population, virginia has become tremendously diverse. when i was growing up, the white turnout on election day was about 85% of the total. as i mentioned, it's low 70's today. that makes a giant difference. you can tell it in the election results. even a small slice of the population can have a big impact in a state that is increasingly diverse and increasingly

new hampshire, pennsylvania, wisconsin, iowa, colorado, nevada, any of those. >> five. >> in the 3-2-1 strategy be virginia is one of the three. if you don't win virginia, how much of a problem? >> they're blocked. that is the strategy -- a lot of the electoral strategy was to block romney in the 3-2-1. can they block him in ohio and win that? can they block him in virginia? if they win virginia or ohio, either one, starts to make it tough. unless some other -- you start to change the strategy. >> quickly, virginia must-win for romney? >> it would be great to win it. historically republican. the opposite strategy is not only focus on 3-2-1 but keep broadening the battlefield. wisconsin, pennsylvania, iowa, colorado, nevada, new hampshire, minnesota. states that come in to play at one time or another. and so you would never want to be only have, one group of states you want as many alternatives as possible. insurance policies if you will. >> so, space cowboys you can stand down for a moment and crumple numbers. calling your sources. bret, it's 3-2-1 or it isn't. >> bret: there you g

obama with a single digit lead in nevada and wisconsin. eight of nine surveys are the past week and a crucial ohio give obama a narrow edge. and we will be focusing on a violator in today's "washington journal." and our swing state series. we want to hear from voters and not-swing states. we want to hear how the election is playing out how you are. and this from the baltimore sun, charging more the candidates will go in the next couple days. ting where the candidates will go in the next couple days. again, the candidates focusing all of their attention in the days leading up to election day on as swing states. we will go to david and the kentucky on the democratic line. tell us a little bit about how the campaign is playing out in the kentucky, one of the non- swing states. caller: it is mostly just romney signs of here, not many obama signs. i think you will landslide ky. the polls show that. and i hate to say it, but even the preachers are preaching against obama and the pulpit. host: are you motivated to got to the polls? caller: yes. i am going to vote, but i think romney wi

vote more than once. this is roxene reuben trying to vote twice. nevada woman cast a ballot on monday and tried to vote at another location later in the day. a worker turned her away after a routine check showed she had already voted. she has been charged with a felony. >> steve: maybe she forgot. meanwhile in massachusetts, a town they are using the word illegal is now illegal. the word was banned in the town of summerville when describing immigrants. the mayor outlawed the illegal word after a group of teenagers argued it was a hurtful term. instead the group wants the term to be used undocumented. the mayor says he wants summerville to be a city of hope for undocumented immigrants and legal immigrants around the world. >> brian: spanish passenger kicked off of her flight because of a book. airlines booted her off because she was breaking one piece of hand luggage rule. the book and scroll she was carrying couldn't fit in her bag. she claimed her credit card wasn't working so she couldn't pay the excess baggage fee. they defend their actions. >> steve: a book counts as one of the pi

? >> yes-- >> ohio, yes, a must-win, if romney didn't win ohio if he takes wisconsin, nevada, iowa, wisconsin new hampshire, a chance he could win pennsylvania and virginia. >> yes. >> uma: that's going to have to be the last word unfortunately we're out of time and appreciate you joining us and always great to see both of you. >> great to see you, too. >> thank you. >> uma: new hampshire, iowa and colorado all in one day. waiting to see from mitt romney in iowa and where we find campaign carl cameron, hi, carl. >> reporter: hi, uma, the theme music for the candidate's entrance has begun and mitt romney takes the podium in dubuque, iowa, a key state before the polls close on the east coast. we'll bring you mitt romney in just a minute. [ male announcer ] hunt...farm... or trail... polaris has what you want. legendary atvs led by the powerful sportsman 850 ho. value-minded side-by-sides featuring the new ranger 800 midsize. and full-size workhorses including the all-new, class-leading, 60-horsepower, ranger xp 900. polaris. hardest working, smoothest riding. get huge rebates on 201

is not the entire state. silicone valley a lot of countries have moved to nevada and texas, including start up companies that can't start up. bigger companies have much easier time in california but california is in billions of collars of debt because of high taxes and regulations. >> laura, there is more millionaires in california than all the red states combined. this is jmpleghts money doesn't buy you brains. it buys you nice houses in brethrenwood. >> higher revenue. making key investments. >> tell france and portugal and spain that. france is raising the tax rate to 90%. in france businesses are leaving france. >> stop changing, nobody is talking 90%. you always use that number it's totally bogus. we are talking about going back to clinton. >> laura: it's a job killer. it's going to kill more jobs. >> 24 million. >> laura: a congressman who turned on his party now has some provocative thoughts on republicans and the african-american vote. he will be here to explain and then preelection lay off threats are now a post election reality. we have a disturbing report. up ahead. >> laura: in the

? >> the president hitting wisconsin, colorado, nevada. romney in virginia. all you know by now important swing states. let's head to what's treated as the pivotal swing state and ohio. this is where ohio stands here. at least according to polls. this is the latest cnn poll of polls has the president with a three-point advantage over governor romney in the state of ohio. five days and counting. cnn's don lemon shows us how the ground game is going in the buckeye state. >> reporter: the front line on the ohio battleground cold, soggy and grey. but neither snow or sleet nor bad directions -- >> are you lost now? >> oh, yeah. >> shall keep the volunteers from their appointed rounds. why are you doing this? >> to support governor romney. >> reporter: when college sophomore and first-time sophomore isn't working or in class, he's driving. walking. is this your next one? >> yes. >> reporter: knocking. and talking to voters. >> when you're going to vote, if you're going to go in early or like -- on election day --' we are going on election day. >> reporter: it's cold, rainy. some people slam the door

state of nevada in mitt romney's column, and that's how you get it. it's not very implausible, and, yes, we know that right now the president seems like a favorite in nevada, and that's what makes this less likely than what most folks think, but between that and don't forget you've got congressional districts in nebraska and maine. the point is if you remember how we started this campaign which was the state of iowa decided by eight votes between rick santorum and mitt romney and then oh, by the way the results flipped two weeks later, i've always worried that that was foreshadowing this nightmare scenario. >> as you talk to us, chuck, i want to note that vice president biden is waiting in line to vote in delaware this morning. we'll keep an eye on that as you and i continue to talk. >> reporter: speaking of vice president biden. under this scenario and people are wondering if you don't get to 270, this would go to the house, so the house would elect the president. the senate would elect the vice president, so under this scenario your most likely outcome romney/biden. >> then we'll know

, nevada, and iowa. so how does this model work? >> so every poll that people read about goes into the model and sees the projection in some way. >> reporter: there might be 30 or 40 of them a day in this year's poll-happy universe. silver's model averaging all those polls and then factors in how well they've performed in past elections and he comes up with probabilities like gambling odds. >> florida, for example, we had romney with a 60% chance of winning. that's how often when you have a one-point lead in the average of polls you've wound up winning in the past. in ohio we have obama with about a 75% chance of winning because he has a larger lead so it's more likely to be enduring on election day itself. >> i'm projecting that you need to win 99 games in order to make it to the post office. >> reporter: think money ball, the book and film about how a geek used numbers to outdo the oakland a's scouts using their intuition to find undervalued baseball players who could win. in other words, the stat-heads versus the pundits again. nate silver started out as a baseball statisti

. polls closed in iowa, montana, nevada, and utah. they remain open in about half a dozen states. cbs is calling new hampshire for president obama, and nbc is saying he will win in new mexico. in the battleground states, president obama has a 1% lead in florida, according to cnn. join us online tonight. the discussion on facebook, and join in on twitter. also, for the first time, you can listen to our show live on your iphone or your android or ipad tonight. and there is a projected winner in ohio by cnn, beating joe the plumber. >> his name is neither joe, nor is he a plumber. >> alan west is in a very tight race down in florida. he is a congressman who, you know, on the ledge, basically a war criminal for his role in the iraq war and the alleged abuse of people in iraq. he is completely out in some territory in some of his statements. i generally do not like to speak in slang terms about member of congress, but he truly is kind of a not. -- nut. he is to the right of everybody else in congress. it is amazing that he is there. i was also looking at the ryan race. it looks like paul r

what it's been like. i just had a telephone call with a lot of people in nevada. we were talking about challenges there and their home values are down and people are having a hard time making ends meet. the median income in america has dropped over $4,000 in the last four years. they are earning less than four years ago. the same time cost of gasoline has gone up $2,000 a family, health insurance premiums are up, groceries are up. these are tough times for america. so my plan to create 12 million jobs is needed and needed now. it has five parts which number one we're going to take full advantage of our energy, our oil, our coal, our gas. [applause] and that creates a lot of jobs. not just in the energy sector but in places that use energy, manufacturing for instance uses a lot of energy in many cases and by having low cost energy and we have it and will continue to have it if we take advantage of these resources. you're going to see manufacturing come back to this country. this is big for our country. that's number one. number two, it's a very helpful thing if a nation has the most pro

that is looking very difficult to call at this point and should be a good one to watch is nevada. another presidential battleground state. i think at this point, most people think obama has a little bit of an edge there, but the republican has shown some ability to get democratic votes and people think he will run ahead of mitt romney in the state. that is a state where ticket splitters could make a difference in the senate race and that has been an incredibly close senate race as well. >> is there anything that would surprise you coming out of election night? >> although people thought republicans would gain control of the senate for a very long time in the beginning of this cycle, at this point, i think republicans actually picking up the four seats they need to gain senate control would really surprise me. they have had a few different things working against them. there have been some flawed candidates like todd akin and richard mourdock. those were races that the republicans were expected to win and now mr. looks like a democratic pickup. it looks more likely the democrats will hold t

harry reid in nevada, the majority leader, and mitch mcconnell, of kentucky, the minority leader, both of them talking about why it is so difficult for democrats and republicans to compromise. h[video clip] >> we have a situation here where compromise is not what we do any more. in your program, john boehner said that he rejects the word compromise. that is exactly what he said. my friend, senator mcconnell, said that his single most important achievement is making sure the president -- that the president is a one-term president. >> compromise can be very difficult. we have different views on how much taxation and government should have, as well as regulation. it is not easy to reach agreement when you have a very different views of the direction the country should take. host: 60 minutes, talking about compromise. 44 state legislatures in play, "6000 seats at stake." we will be bringing you the results of gubernatorial races as well as house and senate races across the country. thomas joins us from frankfort, ky. hello, thomas. caller: i hope that you will give me as much time to state

they need to come back here one more time. we go to nevada, then ohio, then florida, ohio. then virginia, then ohio. they feel like even though they have got an event this afternoon at the airport in columbus they need to come back here one more time. very unusual for a presidential candidate to come out to do an event on election day. typically they wrap up around midnight as governor romney is planning to tonight in manchester, new hampshire with kid rock and others and go back to the home base and sit there and go vote. they wait for election results to come in that night. governor romney and his campaign feeling because they feel like they could grab ohio? they have been very confident about that with their conversations with me or they feel like they need to come back here because it is slipping away. we also don't know what type of event it will be or where it will be. the columbus, dayton area has been a focus. they want to reinforce ham milt ton county -- hamilton county in cincinnati or collier county in cleveland. we don't know what will happen or what form it will take because

year but probably safely in the obama camp. the one place you might want to look here, nevada, florida, north carolina and virginia. those are all potentially in play because they had some improvement in the unemployment rate and if that had not been there, they might have been for romney. i would like to give you a definitive answer. you have the level of unemployment and you have the change. that's what makes this a horse race, simon. >> it's fascinating to see that the way you slice and dice going into the election whether it's turnout or amazing. steve, thank you very much. as the race for the presidency enters its final lap, what about concerns of small businesses? we'll put them on the television next going straight to the source and sitting down with co-founder and co-ceo of warby parker. they make glasses online and they'll open the first store in manhattan very soon. see what they have to say. interesting take. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores

digit lead in nevada and wisconsin. eight of nine surveys are the past week and a crucial ohio give obama a narrow edge. and we will be focusing on a violator in today's "washington journal." and our swing state series. we want to hear from voters and not-swing states. we want to hear how the election is playing out how you are. and this from the baltimore sun, charging more the candidates will go in the next couple days. ting where the candidates will go in the next couple days. again, the candidates focusing all of their attention in the days leading up to election day on as swing states. we will go to david and the kentucky on the democratic line. tell us a little bit about how the campaign is playing out in the kentucky, one of the non- swing states. caller: it is mostly just romney signs of here, not many obama signs. i think you will landslide ky. the polls show that. and i hate to say it, but even the preachers are preaching against obama and the pulpit. host: are you motivated to got to the polls? caller: yes. i am going to vote, but i think romney will win it. host: are the

night? >> in nevada we talk about the third race -- their district, but the fourth district. he lost in the senate primary in 2010. that is the type of district democrats need to win in order to do well. overall i will be watching the seats that republicans favored or even lean republican. the reason why that is how far our are competitive list race democrats have to start winning in defeating republican members in order to get close to the majority. for not winning the heavy -- heavily republican seats, that it will not enough. >> look of the big picture, the balance of power. look at where the president a strong comeback there romney is strong. will there be coattails for the house seats in state by state battles? >> i think the most impact we've seen from the presidential race has already happened. i know in talking to democrats that are running the races, that first debate was fundamentally important, not just because it shifted the presidential debate, but because it was a time when house candidates registered to go on television, try to prove a moderate credentials. that first

would be nevada. it's a state a that a lot of republicans and democrats slightly leans in the democratic category. but it's not an implausible scenario. if nobody got 270 then the house of representatives would decide who the president was, but the u.s. senate would vote on who the vice president was. that means the most likely outcome under this scenario is a romney/biden scenario. >> another scenario if ohio is too close to call. >> here's the problem with ohio. they have a new law that says provisional ballots, and these are ballots that are questioned there, maybe somebody didn't bring an i.d., maybe a signature is off, they will let you vote, but you get put in a separate stack. they wouldn't even start counting them until november 17th. today is still november 6th. so in 11 days, let's say the margin is less than 50,000, there's likely to be over 200,000 provisional ballots cast in ohio. they wouldn't start counting those until 11 days. . they wouldn't start counting until then. it would make 2000 feel like a flakback for people. >> that brings us to our final nightmare scenario an

. >> callerare you there? we will try paul and boulder city nevada back your democrats line. paul, hello? >> caller: thank you for c-span. watching the president's comments, he's not going to take a hardline on whether the attacks which are going to go back to the clinton era. i don't understand why this president is not, i mean, as before, i hope we're not seeing a repeat, you know, the progressives and liberals really push him over the line along with labor. you know, he's got to take a stronger stance because the republicans, mitch mcconnell and cantor and boehner, they are not, you know, really acknowledging that the people have sent the message to them. that they want this president agenda, and they want them to work together. they are not acknowledging that. okay, i understand what he's trying to say to take your of the middle class first, but as far as i'm concerned, you know, 39.6%, you know, is more than reasonable. i think after they've had almost 12 years of tax breaks and 300% growth in the last 30 years in the upper 1%, i think they ought to be paying maybe 40%. >> host: pau

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